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战斗力 鹅
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发表于 2023-11-18 11:50
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本帖最后由 Benighted 于 2023-11-18 12:04 编辑
翻译下：
关于 Altman 离开 OpenAI 的最可能解释：
OpenAI 董事会在高层领导经验上的流失，引发了一场关于最近科技突破应用方式的内部分歧，最终演变成一场政治角力。
近几年，由于利益冲突，OpenAI 的董事会失去了多位资深监管人士，包括 Elon Musk、Reid Hoffman 和 Will Hurd。唯一剩下的有丰富领导经验的人是 Adam D'Angelo。
在 Will Hurd 离开后，董事会的投票出现了三对三的僵持：
对立的双方可能是 Ilya、Sam、Greg 对抗 Adam、Tasha、Helen。
解雇 Sam 是出于政治考虑。
这不是因为他的绩效、战略领导力或对公司未来的愿景不足。而是因为围绕一项技术突破的应用产生了争议，这引发了在谨慎安全与快速部署之间的投票决策。
这为何属于派系斗争及其突兀性
如果这是预先计划好的，Sam 就不会在上周代表 OpenAI 参加 APEC 活动，也不会在两周前出席 OpenAI DevDay。如果 Microsoft 知情或参与其中，Satya Nadella 就不会在 Dev Day 与 Sam 同台亮相。
Microsoft 表示他们事先并不知情 - 他们声称是在决定前一分钟才被告知。这表明这一决策在内部也没有达成共识 - @gdb 也是因为这个原因刚刚辞职。
最近在亚太经合组织（APEC）会议上，Sam 宣布他在 OpenAI 的工作经历中目睹了知识界限四次被推进，其中最近一次发生在几周前。
看来 Greg 和 Sam 确实有意构建并部署这一成果，但 Ilya 持反对态度。Ilya 今年早些时候接手了“超级智能对齐”部门的领导工作。我相信，正是 Ilya 的一票打破了原有的平衡，导致了最终的分歧和离职。
Sam 被开除的原因似乎是出于对他可能会通过部署最新的突破性技术而过快推动 AI 发展的担忧。
这次离职似乎与公司运营、资金消耗、建立合作伙伴关系的能力等方面无关——OpenAI 在筹资能力上有着绝对的优势，他们拥有巨大的现金流，并且员工数量只有几百人，其卓越地位毋庸置疑。
更为关键的是，这次离职的突然性、未能与微软进行充分沟通，以及 Greg Brockman 的辞职，这些都表明这是董事会内部某个派系的突然行动。
董事会可能认为 OpenAI 在伙伴关系、资金、团队和发展方向上已经完全准备就绪，可以承受将 Sam 推出局，以重新掌控 AI 工具推出的方向和速度，同时不危及 OpenAI 的安全。
无论缺乏“坦率”背后的具体理由是什么，这很可能根本上是对安全主义和加速主义之间的分歧。
有些解释应该被排除在外：Sam 不仅非常成功和聪明，而且以其正直、有目标和有益社会的形象而闻名。他的个人资产也已经超过数亿美元。
从 OpenAI 的公开声明和 Eric Schmidt 的评论来看，这次分歧似乎主要是关于 AI 工具使用意图的不同看法，而不是权力过度使用、金融利益冲突或个人丑闻。
Sam 下一步会创造什么新奇事物呢？
就在几周前，他公开讨论了这个问题。他认为，只有当 AI 能在科学领域取得新的物理发现时，超级智能才算真正到来。
AI 已经在文本和媒体领域引发了革命。接下来的挑战是探索原子世界。科学基础模型将是 AI 革命的真正里程碑，因为我们生活在由原子构成的世界，而非仅仅是数字的世界。
如果你对在这一领域进行创新感兴趣，请联系我。
——
谈到被指控发动政变时，Sutskever 说：“你可以这么说。我理解你为什么会用这个词，但我不认同。这是董事会为了非盈利组织的使命所做的决定，即确保 OpenAI 能够构建对全人类有益的 AGI（人工通用智能）。”AGI 是指能够像人类一样进行推理的软件。
当被问及“这种幕后操作是否适合管理世界上最重要的公司？”时，Sutskever 回答说：“公平地说，我同意这不是最理想的方式。百分之百。”
——
我们需要明确一点：目前的对立面是：
Sam 和 Greg VS Ilya、Adam、Helen 和 Tasha。
这种情况是不可避免的。原因在于 Ilya 现在负责 OpenAI 的超级智能对齐团队。由于他是董事会中唯一的内部成员，显然他是这次政变的幕后推手。
我不认为外部人士有能力成功地推动一项决议，把 Sam 从 OpenAI 中赶出去。
Ilya 获得支持的理由可能是对战略方法和新技术推广执行方面的不同看法。让这一切成为可能的，其实是 Sam 成功地把 OpenAI 带到了一个行业领先的地位。
My Highest Likelihood Explanation on Altman's Departure:
Erosion of senior leadership experience on the OpenAI Board of Directors created a situation where factionalism over the proposed use of a recent breakthrough led to a political takeover.
Over the last few years, board of directors at OpenAI lost a lot of its senior oversight due to conflicts of interest - Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Will Hurd. The only person left with significant leadership experience is Adam D'Angelo.
After Will Hurd left, it was a split vote, 3v3:
The likely factions were Ilya, Sam, Greg vs Adam, Tasha, Helen.
Firing Sam was politics.
It was not over performance, strategic leadership, or vision for the company. Rather, there was contention over the use of a breakthrough that drove a vote between safetyism and deployment speed.
Why this was Factionalism - Sudden Ousting
If this was planned, Sam would not be representing OpenAI at APEC events all week, OpenAI DevDay two weeks ago. If Microsoft knew or was involved, Satya Nadella would not have been on-stage with Sam at Dev Day.
Microsoft claims they didn't have advance knowledge of this - they claim they knew about it one minute in advance. There clearly was not internal alignment on this decision either - @gdb just quit over this.
What was the wedge issue? Just recently at APEC Sam announced he had witnessed the frontier of knowledge being pushed back four times in his experience at OpenAI, and the last time was recently - a couple weeks ago.
Likely Greg and Sam wanted to build and deploy it in earnest, and Ilya didn't. Ilya had become lead of the "Superintelligence Alignment" division earlier this year. I would bet Ilya was the vote that broke the stalemate and led to the departure.
Sam was kicked out over concerns he would move AI forward too fast by deploying a recent breakthrough.
It's unlikely departure was related to anything regarding operations, cash burn, partnership-making ability, and so forth - OpenAI has blank-check status for ability to raise, they have huge cashflow, only a few hundred staff, are beyond doubt.
Most importantly, the suddenness of the departure, lack of communication to Microsoft, and resignation of Greg Brockman all point to this being a sudden move by a board faction.
Likely, the board felt that OpenAI was completely setup - in partnerships, funding, team, and direction, they could afford to push Sam out to regain control of of the direction and pace of roll-out of AI tools without threatening the security of OpenAI.
Whatever the proximate justification behind the lack of being 'candid' - this is likely ultimately a split between safetyism and acceleration.
Explanations that should be discarded
Sam is extremely successful and intelligent, but also has a bulletproof reputation as an upstanding, intentional and pro-social person. He's also a billionaire several times over.
The language used in the OpenAI disclosure, as well as comments by Eric Schmidt, seem to all point that this was a disagreement over intentions behind the use of AI tools, rather than an over-reach of power, monetary conflict of interest, or a personal scandal. |
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楼主: RandomDictator
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这董事会成员………………
