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本帖最后由 Benighted 于 2024-12-10 23:10 编辑
Aymenn J Al-Tamimi
@ajaltamimi
Assad's fall from the perspective of 'resistance axis' sources, though there is some clear spin from those sources. Seems to me pace of the insurgents' advance just threw Assad's allies into disarray, & they realised a sudden massive intervention was impractical & not worth it.
从“抵抗轴心”消息来源的角度来看阿萨德的倒台，尽管这些消息来源有一些明显的春秋笔法。在我看来，叛乱分子的推进速度让阿萨德的盟友陷入混乱，他们意识到突然大规模干预是不切实际的，不值得的。
文章：
Inside story: Hezbollah, Iran and the downfall of Assad
内幕：真主党、伊朗和阿萨德的垮台
https://amwaj.media/article/insi ... e-downfall-of-assad
The sudden downfall of Bashar Al-Assad has raised a number of questions about the thinking and roles of his supporters. First and foremost, Russia—the most powerful foreign ally of the Syrian government—played a pivotal role as events unfolded.
巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar Al-Assad）的突然垮台引发了人们对其支持者的思想和角色的许多质疑。首先，俄罗斯——叙利亚政府最强大的外国盟友——在事态发展中发挥了关键作用。
According to one high-ranking regional diplomatic source, Assad’s recent visit to Moscow was a turning point. While the Syrian leader was in Russia, forces led by the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) unexpectedly seized Aleppo without a fight. Upon his return to Syria, Assad is said to have expressed anger toward his army. In private meetings, Amwaj.media has learned, he lambasted his commanders as corrupt and untrustworthy—describing his army as a collection of “thieves” who cannot be relied upon. While Assad’s Russian host and counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had promised assistance, the senior regional source suggested that this support was limited to ensuring a safe exit. Given that Assad and his wife are now apparently in Russia, this promise has been kept—at least for now.
据一位地区高级外交消息人士称，阿萨德最近对莫斯科的访问是一个转折点。当叙利亚领导人在俄罗斯时，逊尼派**主义者 Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham （HTS） 领导的部队出人意料地不战而降地占领了阿勒颇。据说阿萨德在返回叙利亚后表达了对他的军队的愤怒。据 Amwaj.media 了解，在私下会议上，他抨击他的指挥官腐败且不值得信赖——将他的军队描述为一群不可依赖的“小偷”。虽然阿萨德的俄罗斯东道主和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）承诺提供援助，但该地区的高级消息人士表示，这种支持仅限于确保安全撤离。鉴于阿萨德和他的妻子现在显然在俄罗斯，这个承诺已经兑现了——至少目前是这样。
The source also provided insights into earlier negotiations on Syria. Proposals for dialogue between the opposition and the government were discussed, with Turkey playing a significant role. Ankara reportedly instructed the opposition to act with restraint, and there was even coordination with the former Syrian prime minister to lead a transitional phase aimed at forming a new state. But none of these efforts really took off, partly due to the reticence of Assad to usher change. In parallel, informed sources in Tehran told Amwaj.media, the Turks allegedly blindsided both Iran and Russia by insisting that movement spotted among rebels in Idlib in recent months was nothing to worry about.
该消息人士还提供了对早期叙利亚谈判的见解。讨论了反对派和政府之间对话的建议，土耳其发挥了重要作用。据报道，安卡拉指示反对派克制行事，甚至与叙利亚前总理协调，领导旨在组建新国家的过渡阶段。但这些努力都没有真正奏效，部分原因是阿萨德对引领变革保持沉默。与此同时，德黑兰的知情人士告诉 Amwaj.media，土耳其人据称坚称最近几个月在伊德利卜发现的叛军动向没什么好担心的，这让伊朗和俄罗斯都措手不及。
Then there is the role of Iran, the Assad family’s longstanding regional ally. Seeing an armed rebellion take shape amid the Arab Spring protests, the Islamic Republic dispatched its expeditionary Quds Force to save its Syrian partner with blood and great treasure.
然后是伊朗的作用，伊朗是阿萨德家族的长期地区盟友。看到阿拉伯之春抗议活动中武装叛乱的形成，**共和国派遣了远征圣城旅，用鲜血和巨大的财富拯救了它的叙利亚伙伴。
Although the tide was turned against Sunni rebels and fighting frozen for the past four years, western sanctions gradually hollowed out the Syrian state. As the government in Damascus turned to large-scale drug trafficking to generate revenue, it became sorely apparent that only petrodollars and political pressure on western capitals from Gulf Arab states would enable a semblance of reconstruction. On this basis, Iran welcomed the pioneering decision by the Emiratis to reopen their embassy in Damascus in late 2018, ending seven years of estrangement. Facilitated by Abu Dhabi, Assad also gradually re-engaged with others who had backed the rebellion against his rule—including Saudi Arabia.
尽管过去四年来，形势发生了逆转，战火停滞不前，但西方的制裁逐渐掏空了叙利亚国家。随着大马士革政府转向大规模毒品贩运以创收，很明显，只有石油美元和海湾阿拉伯国家对西方资本的政治压力才能实现重建的表象。在此基础上，伊朗欢迎阿联酋人于 2018 年底重新开放驻大马士革大使馆的开创性决定，结束了长达七年的隔阂。在阿布扎比的推动下，阿萨德还逐渐与支持反抗其统治的其他国家重新接触，包括沙特阿拉伯。
But things took a turn following the Oct. 7, 2023 Palestinian surprise attack on Israeli border communities. As Hezbollah immediately opened a “support front” against Israel following the eruption of the Gaza war, the Emiratis reportedly sought to prod Assad into standing on the sidelines. Barely a week later, the diplomatic mission of Yemen’s Ansarullah movement in Damascus was shuttered, ostensibly as a precondition for Assad’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. The distancing from Ansarullah, better known as the Houthis, was particularly pronounced as the group over the past year rose to become a key member of the Axis through its drone and missile attacks on Israel as well as disruption of shipping in the Red Sea.
但在 2023 年 10 月 7 日巴勒斯坦对以色列边境社区的突然袭击之后，情况发生了转变。据报道，由于真主党在加沙战争爆发后立即打开了针对以色列的“支持阵线”，阿联酋人试图刺激阿萨德袖手旁观。仅仅一周后，也门 Ansarullah 运动在大马士革的外交使团就被关闭了，表面上是作为阿萨德与沙特阿拉伯和解的前提。与 Ansarullah（更广为人知的是胡塞武装）的距离尤为明显，因为该组织在过去一年中通过对以色列的无人机和导弹袭击以及破坏红海航运而成为轴心国的关键成员。
Meanwhile, as Israel frontally assaulted the Iranian presence—taking out the Quds Force command that helped Assad cling to power, and even razing an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus—the Syrian government largely kept mum. The same lukewarm approach was apparent in the statement Assad issued following Israel’s killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s southern suburb earlier this year.
与此同时，当以色列正面攻击伊朗的存在——摧毁帮助阿萨德夺取权力的圣城旅指挥部，甚至夷平伊朗在大马士革的外交大楼时——叙利亚政府基本上保持沉默。今年早些时候，以色列在贝鲁特南郊杀害真主党秘书长哈桑·纳斯鲁拉（Hassan Nasrallah）后，阿萨德发表的声明中也明显表现出同样的不冷不热的态度。
In other words, while Syria’s geography and official state ideology made it central to the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’, Assad was apparently leveraging “non-resistance” to rehabilitate his standing among Arab allies of the US.
换句话说，虽然叙利亚的地理和官方国家意识形态使其成为伊朗领导的“抵抗轴心”的核心，但阿萨德显然正在利用“不抵抗”来恢复他在美国阿拉伯盟友中的地位。
So when HTS rolled into Aleppo and Hama without a fight, Iran was in no rush to come to Assad’s aid. The senior regional diplomatic source explained that despite the Syrian government’s urgent request for Iranian support, logistical constraints and operational risks—including potential Israeli airstrikes—made such assistance impractical. This, according to the source, further highlighted Iran’s growing burden in the Syrian crisis, which was no longer tenable. If direct access was to be physically constrained by Israeli air power, mindful of repeated bombings of runways in both Aleppo and Damascus as well as threats against Iranian flights in recent weeks, it ultimately diminished the value of Syria as an ally.
因此，当 HTS 不战而降地进入阿勒颇和哈马时，伊朗并不急于援助阿萨德。这位高级地区外交消息人士解释说，尽管叙利亚政府紧急请求伊朗的支持，但后勤限制和运营风险——包括以色列的潜在空袭——使得这种援助变得不切实际。据消息人士称，这进一步凸显了伊朗在叙利亚危机中日益增长的负担，而这种负担已经站不住脚了。如果以色列空中力量对直接进入进行物理限制，同时考虑到阿勒颇和大马士革的跑道反复轰炸以及最近几周对伊朗航班的威胁，它最终降低了叙利亚作为盟友的价值。
In this context, the Quds Force is said to have established contact with HTS, securing assurances amid the collapse of the Syrian army that Shiite Muslims and Shiite shrines as well as the Iranian embassy would be left untouched. The extent of the involvement of Iran’s diplomatic apparatus in this initiative is unclear. Nonetheless, as Iran’s evacuated embassy was ransacked on Dec. 8, the state broadcaster in Tehran highlighted that the assailants were “not affiliated with the group in charge [of Syria],” alluding to HTS having kept its word.
在这种情况下，据说圣城旅已经与 HTS 建立了联系，在叙利亚军队崩溃时获得了什叶派**和什叶派圣地以及伊朗大使馆的保证。伊朗外交机构参与这一倡议的程度尚不清楚。尽管如此，随着伊朗撤离的大使馆于 12 月 8 日被洗劫一空，德黑兰的国家广播公司强调，袭击者“与负责 [叙利亚] 的组织无关”，并暗指 HTS 信守诺言。
The Lebanese dimension 黎巴嫩维度
The role of Hezbollah, and specifically its ceasefire with Israel, is also crucial to understanding the story of the downfall of Assad. According to the senior regional diplomatic source, the truce—which went into effect as HTS launched its offensive—was an unavoidable outcome due to the unsustainability of Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel. “The war had become too costly to continue,” the source explained, saying that Hezbollah “has serious shortcomings…it no longer has the resources to fight effectively and cannot acquire advanced weapons to shift the war’s trajectory.”
真主党的作用，特别是它与以色列的停火，对于理解阿萨德垮台的故事也至关重要。据地区高级外交消息人士称，由于真主党与以色列的对抗不可持续，停战协议在 HTS 发动攻势时生效，是不可避免的结果。“战争已经变得太昂贵了，无法继续下去，”消息人士解释说，并说真主党“有严重的缺陷......它不再拥有有效战斗的资源，也无法获得先进的武器来改变战争的轨迹。
Turning to Hezbollah’s broader strategy, the source pointed out significant flaws, criticizing the Lebanese movement’s transition toward conventional military tactics. “Resistance movements cannot operate like traditional armies,” he lamented, “Launching missiles and drones while trying to maintain deterrence in a conventional manner is unsustainable, and recent experiences have proven this.”
在谈到真主党更广泛的战略时，这位消息人士指出了重大缺陷，批评了黎巴嫩运动向常规军事战术的过渡。“抵抗运动不能像传统军队那样运作，”他感叹道，“发射导弹和无人机，同时试图以常规方式保持威慑是不可持续的，最近的经验证明了这一点。
The decision to end the war, according to the source, was led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Nasrallah’s successor Naim Qassem—with Iran’s approval, and even though the agreement was considered unfavorable. “It was better to preserve Hezbollah and the Shiite community than to face total destruction,” the senior source stated, emphasizing that the primary objective was to halt the fighting—and that this decision was Lebanese, not Iranian.
据消息人士称，结束战争的决定是由议会议长纳比·贝里（Nabih Berri）和纳斯鲁拉的继任者纳伊姆·卡西姆（Naim Qassem）领导的——得到了伊朗的批准，尽管该协议被认为不利。“保护真主党和什叶派社区总比面临彻底毁灭要好，”这位高级消息人士说，并强调主要目标是停止战斗——而这个决定是黎巴嫩的，而不是伊朗的。
The arc of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria is long, but became particularly pronounced over the past decade. As the Syrian military was on the verge of defeat in 2013, the Lebanese movement and Iran were equally alarmed. Both saw the threat of Sunni militancy taking root across the region. Nasrallah and then-Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani also passionately charged that Damascus was crucial to the wider “resistance” against Israel, convincing Iran’s leadership that full-scale intervention was a must.
真主党介入叙利亚的弧线很长，但在过去十年中变得尤为明显。2013 年，当叙利亚军队濒临失败时，黎巴嫩运动和伊朗同样感到震惊。两人都看到了逊尼派激进主义在该地区扎根的威胁。纳斯鲁拉和当时的圣城旅指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼 （Qasem Soleimani） 也热情洋溢地指责大马士革对于更广泛的针对以色列的“抵抗”至关重要，并说服伊朗领导层全面干预是必须的。
So in the spring of 2013, Hezbollah fighters moved into Al-Qusayr. Situated southwest of Homs, a key node connecting Damascus with the Alawite coastal heartlands, the region was vital to rebel factions which had emerged amid the Arab Spring. Its location near the border with Lebanon allowed them to smuggle in fighters and weapons, putting up stiff resistance against forces loyal to Assad. The battle was bloody, claiming the lives of over 100 members of Iran’s foremost Arab ally. But in the end, Qusayr was returned to Assad’s control, and the battle was later—together with Russia’s military intervention in 2015—chronicled as the turning point in the war against Sunni militants.
因此，在 2013 年春天，真主党战士进入了 Al-Qusayr。该地区位于霍姆斯西南部，是连接大马士革和阿拉维派沿海中心地带的关键节点，对于阿拉伯之春期间出现的叛乱派别至关重要。它靠近黎巴嫩边境，使他们能够走私战斗机和武器，对忠于阿萨德的部队进行顽强抵抗。这场战斗是血腥的，夺走了伊朗最重要的阿拉伯盟友的 100 多名成员的生命。但最终，库赛尔又回到了阿萨德的控制之下，这场战斗后来——连同 2015 年俄罗斯的军事干预——被记录为打击逊尼派激进分子战争的转折点。
A decade later, Qusayr once again held special symbolism as the Syrian army faltered in the face of the blitz led by HTS. With the fall of Aleppo and Hama within the span of days—and apparently without any real fight—Homs was in the spotlight. Without it, Assad would be left with only Damascus, cut off from the coast. Accounts of what happened next are conflicting. Initially, insiders charged that up to 2,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force were to be deployed for one last stand.
十年后，Qusayr 再次具有特殊的象征意义，因为叙利亚军队在 HTS 领导的闪电战面前步履蹒跚。随着阿勒颇和哈马在几天内沦陷——显然没有任何真正的战斗——霍姆斯成为了聚光灯下的焦点。没有它，阿萨德将只剩下大马士革，与海岸隔绝。接下来发生的事情的说法相互矛盾。最初，内部人士指控说，将部署多达 2,000 名真主党精锐的拉德万部队 （Radwan Force） 成员进行最后的抵抗。
But Hezbollah’s deployment turned out to be far smaller, with commanders quickly concluding that a withdrawal was in order after an operational assessment, Amwaj.media has learned. Shortly afterwards, informed sources explained, a decision was made to evacuate the country through the same route that had been used to enter the Syrian conflict back in 2013. According to a source in the area, soon after the Hezbollah convoy—said to have been made up of dozens of vehicles—crossed the border towards the Hermel district in Lebanon, Israel struck. Hezbollah keeps casualty figures a secret, but the losses from the bombing are said to have been “big.”
但事实证明，真主党的部署规模要小得多，指挥官们在进行行动评估后很快得出结论，撤军是必要的。知情人士解释说，不久之后，政府决定通过 2013 年进入叙利亚冲突的相同路线撤离该国。据该地区的消息人士称，在真主党车队（据说由数十辆汽车组成）越过边境前往黎巴嫩的赫梅尔区后不久，以色列就发动了袭击。真主党对伤亡数字保密，但据说爆炸造成的损失是“巨大的”。
Following the deadly debacle, a well-informed source in Lebanon told Amwaj.media that the decision to enter Homs and then withdraw was taken by a “Lebanese individual” and not upon an Iranian request or leadership decision. If accurate, this account of events raises concern that Hezbollah is no longer as disciplined as before. It also indicates troubling and potentially chaotic times ahead, as Iran and its allies struggle to adapt to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
在这场致命的灾难之后，黎巴嫩一位消息灵通的消息人士告诉 Amwaj.media，进入霍姆斯然后撤军的决定是由“黎巴嫩个人”做出的，而不是根据伊朗的要求或领导层的决定。如果准确的话，这种事件的描述令人担忧，即真主党不再像以前那样有纪律。它还预示着未来将面临令人不安且可能混乱的时期，因为伊朗及其盟友正在努力适应快速变化的地缘政治格局。
Assad fell because “he wanted to prove to the west that he is not a warmonger,” an Iranian hardline lawmaker thundered as images emerged of HTS in control of Damascus. What this message may hold, and whether it will emerge as the dominant and coordinated approach of Tehran and allied capitals, remains to be seen.
阿萨德倒台是因为“他想向西方证明他不是好战分子”，当HTS控制大马士革的图片出现时，伊朗强硬派议员如此大声疾呼。这一信息可能带来什么，以及它是否会成为德黑兰及其盟国首都的主导和协调方法，还有待观察。 |
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楼主: michaelakan
沪公网安备 31010702007642号 )
发表于 2024-12-10 22:52
朱大帅之前的外交表现还算不错，但是没有像阿塔一样及时接手军备就是菜了，还对以色列构了，那就没法再往下走了，只能做个地方军阀，而且是缩水后的HTS......
