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战斗力 鹅
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注册时间 2007-4-27
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Assad stood still in an evolving world
阿萨德在不断发展的世界中停滞不前 (self.syriancivilwar)
submitted 1 day ago by RidavaX
HTS and Assad were both given the same amount of time to recoup from the active war phase. Both had plenty of time to regroup and rebuild their capabilities. Both very safely protected by great powers.
HTS 和阿萨德都获得了相同的时间来从活跃的战争阶段中恢复过来。两人都有足够的时间来重组和重建自己的能力。两者都受到大国的非常安全的保护。
While HTS overperformed and evolved drastically in every aspect. Assad's regime just froze in time and degraded. A reduction in readiness, a degradation in equipment, abysmall morale.
而 HTS 在各个方面都表现出色并取得了巨大发展。阿萨德政权只是及时冻结并堕落。战备状态降低，设备退化，士气低落。
What was Assad doing these last four years? Where did all the Captagon money go?
阿萨德在过去四年里做了什么？Captagon 的钱都去哪儿了？
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[–]_begovic_Syrian 109 points 1 day ago
As a Syrian, it makes me wonder what the regime have been doing with all our tax money and government budget. In schools, they would always tell us “we are building an army that can protect our country” as an excuse for poor poor services and education. Say, I am a staunch government supporter, I would be pissed that all my money went to an incompetent army at the end.
作为一个叙利亚人，我想知道这个政权用我们所有的税款和政府预算做了什么。在学校里，他们总是告诉我们“我们正在建立一支可以保护我们国家的军队”，以此作为服务和教育不佳的借口。说，我是一个坚定的政府支持者，如果我所有的钱最后都流向了一支无能的军队，我会很生气。
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[–]SnooDoodles3909Syrian 80 points 1 day ago
It's going into pockets 它被装进了口袋
[–]CanadaHousingCrisis 57 points 1 day ago
This is the answer. 这就是答案。
Families living abroad in luxury.
生活在国外的豪华家庭。
Secret stashes of gold. 秘密的黄金藏匿处。
Same old story. 还是老故事。
Corruption is the nation killer.
腐败是国家的杀手。
[–]_begovic_Syrian 19 points 1 day ago
Of course, I am being an idealist
当然，我是一个理想主义者
[–]OrderlyPanic 12 points 1 day ago
It's a kleptocracy that's been choked by international sanctions. There isn't a lot of funds and a tremendous amount is going to graft.
这是一个被国际制裁扼杀的盗贼统治。没有很多资金，而且有大量的资金要嫁接。
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[–]SenatorPencilFace 16 points 1 day ago
As a Syrian, would you say that there’s evidence that the regime could have improved the situation after the rebels got pushed to idlib? Would you say the regime held areas were quiet enough that Assad’s apologists can’t really make the argument that they were weakened by the war and couldn’t win over the hearts and minds of the Syrian public?
作为一名叙利亚人，您认为有证据表明，在叛军被推到伊德利卜后，该政权本可以改善局势吗？你认为该政权控制的地区足够安静，以至于阿萨德的辩护者无法真正提出他们被战争削弱了，无法赢得叙利亚公众的心的论点吗？
Genuinely asking in good faith as an American who has no idea what things are like in the ground over there.
作为一个不知道那边地面是什么样子的美国人，真诚地问道。
[–]_begovic_Syrian 26 points 1 day ago
Ok let’s talk first Aleppo siege. It took 3 years.
好的，让我们先谈谈阿勒颇围攻。花了 3 年时间。
Second siege. A few hours.
第二次围攻。几个小时。
Should tell you enough. 应该告诉你足够多了。
Edit: I know you I did not answer your question, but I am just giving a simple example on my point
编辑：我知道你没有回答你的问题，但我只是举一个简单的例子来说明我的观点
[–]SenatorPencilFace 10 points 1 day ago
So I’m really making this more complex than it actually is and Assad’s government has and continues to get shittier and shittier?
所以我真的把事情搞得比实际复杂得多，阿萨德政府已经并将继续变得越来越糟糕？
[–]_begovic_Syrian 32 points 1 day ago
Yup it was just branded as modern because he wears a suit and shaves his beard. Also his wife is kind hot
是的，它只是被贴上了现代的标签，因为他穿着西装并剃了胡子。他的妻子也很性感
[–]KibbehNayehSyrian 20 points 1 day ago
Western sanctions also really destroyed his economy, the Captagon economy could never replace the money the country was able to get before 2019.
西方制裁也确实摧毁了他的经济，Captagon 经济永远无法取代该国在 2019 年之前能够获得的资金。
Second off there are massive diesel and electricity issues and Russia didn't do a single thing to solve them. It almost feels like Russia is working against Syria, they have really strong relations with Israel.
其次，存在严重的柴油和电力问题，而俄罗斯没有采取任何措施来解决这些问题。几乎感觉就像俄罗斯在对付叙利亚，他们与以色列的关系非常牢固。
[–]Kriztauf 12 points 1 day ago
Honestly I think Russia would love to drop Iran and it's proxies in a second if it could convince Israel to drop the West and ally itself with Moscow if it got the chance.
老实说，我认为如果俄罗斯能说服以色列放弃西方并与莫斯科结盟，如果有机会，它很乐意在一秒钟内放弃伊朗及其代理人。
[–]KibbehNayehSyrian 16 points 1 day ago
I think Israel is actually a strong ally with both Washington and Moscow. Seems like Israel and Russia are just pretending they are not, but no doubt they work together in a lot of ways.
我认为以色列实际上是华盛顿和莫斯科的强大盟友。以色列和俄罗斯似乎只是假装不是，但毫无疑问，他们在很多方面都合作在一起。
[–]OrangeSpaceMan5 3 points 1 day ago
Why work with the hand that feeds your enemies?
为什么要用喂养敌人的手来工作呢？
[–]JackryanUS 6 points 1 day ago
They also have mutual enemies and they don't want the US to think they have nowhere else to turn
他们也有共同的敌人，他们不希望美国认为他们别无选择
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[–]RidavaX[S] 28 points 1 day ago
Some Idlib-based fighters were shocked to see the poverty in Aleppo. Within days of taking Aleppo, the HTS government increased electricity hours. Then they started installing telecom towers in Aleppo. HTS is simply more efficient and adaptable than Assad's side.
一些居住在伊德利卜的战士看到阿勒颇的贫困感到震惊。在占领阿勒颇后的几天内，HTS 政府增加了用电时间。然后，他们开始在阿勒颇安装电信塔。HTS 比阿萨德一方更高效、适应性更强。
[–]MuzzleO 3 points 20 hours ago
Assad regime got squeezed out by the sanctions and stole what was left so SAA.
阿萨德政权被制裁排挤，偷走了 SAA 剩下的东西。
[–]No-History-Evee-Made 54 points 1 day ago
let's not forget that turkey offered him normalization. if he knew the state of his army and society he would have taken it.
我们不要忘记，土耳其为他提供了正常化的机会。如果他知道他的军队和社会的状况，他就会接受它。
he's a terrible leader, probably never really gets involved with the state and is just there because the army needs him as a figurehead.
他是一个糟糕的领导人，可能从来没有真正参与过国家事务，只是因为军队需要他作为傀儡。
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[–]omarsn93 11 points 1 day ago
It's always been a weak ass army. Even during the first war. Untrained men with light weapons almost whooped his ass up until he brought up his gangs, and they went all in. The difference now is he is all alone. His allies are waaaay weaker than before and busy with their own problems.
它一直是一支弱小的军队。甚至在第一次战争期间。没有受过训练的轻武器男人几乎要把他的屁股弄得乱七八糟，直到他提起他的帮派，他们全力以赴。现在的不同之处在于他孤身一人。他的盟友比以前更虚弱了，忙于解决自己的问题。
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[–]IssAHey 11 points 1 day ago
two things happened. 发生了两件事。
the HTS got off with a lot of talent that escaped southern Syria, not to mention they received a lot of aid from Turkey which helped with keeping the civilians alive.
HTS 带着很多逃离叙利亚南部的人才离开了，更不用说他们从土耳其获得了大量援助，这有助于维持平民的生命。
and secondly 其次
Assad was hit with a huge amount of sanctions that drastically limited his capabilities on rebuilding his armed forces, and as such went to his population and started to take as much money as possible, however, many of the leadership in Damascus is very corrupt and started to steal the money from social services and placed it in the pockets of few.
阿萨德受到了大量制裁，极大地限制了他重建武装部队的能力，因此他流向了他的人民并开始拿走尽可能多的钱，然而，大马士革的许多领导层都非常腐败，开始从社会服务中窃取资金并将其放入少数人的口袋里。
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[–]sorryaboutmyenglish 4 points 1 day ago
Syria is under very heavy sanctions. Army is poorly equipped while hts has drones and staff. Also there is little incentive for syrian armys conscripts to fight while international legionaires fights for a greater rewarding force like god and nato. Also even if you are a headchopping psychopath, media painting you as freedom warriors gives an extra booost and some sort of moral high ground.
叙利亚正受到非常严厉的制裁。陆军装备简陋，而 hts 有无人机和工作人员。此外，叙利亚军队应征入伍的士兵几乎没有动力去战斗，而国际军团士兵则为像上帝和北约这样更有价值的力量而战。此外，即使你是一个砍头的精神病患者，媒体也会把你描绘成自由战士，这会给你带来额外的喧嚣和某种道德制高点。
Assad was right not to trust turkey all along but he shouldnt have trusted russia either. Also he should have cleaned the corrupted beurocracy in both military civil admin. Im sad that 15 years of psyop succeeded this way. Sorry for real syrians who tried to put a fight against this overwhelming psyops, sanctions and jihaadi attacks for 15 years
阿萨德一直不信任土耳其是正确的，但他也不应该信任俄罗斯。此外，他应该清理军事民政管理中腐败的欧洲政治。我很遗憾 15 年的 psyop 以这种方式成功了。对不起那些试图对抗这些压倒性的心理攻击、制裁和**攻击15年的真正叙利亚人
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[–]irradihate 3 points 1 day ago
Who in Syria is fighting for NATO? ffs
叙利亚有谁在为北约而战？的
[–]sorryaboutmyenglish 0 points 1 day ago
Hts isis ( who becomes freedom loving rebels when they conquer some city and becomes islamist extremists when they got caught on camera doing evil shit) fights for jihad. Rest of the rebels fights for money and postwar statuses that west(nato is another synonym) promises. Like in libya.
Hts isis（当他们征服某个城市时变成了热爱自由的叛逆者，当他们被摄像机捕捉到做恶事时变成了**极端分子）为**而战。其余的叛军为金钱和战后地位而战，这是西方（北约的另一个同义词）所承诺的。就像在利比亚一样。
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[–]Memerang344 7 points 1 day ago
Suriyak had this to say about HTS and the SAA and essentially described what you said.
Suriyak 对 HTS 和 SAA 有这样的看法，基本上描述了你所说的。
He is obviously is biased towards the SAA, so take what he says here with a grain of salt.
他显然对 SAA 有偏见，所以对他在这里所说的持保留态度。
“After nine days of operations the rebel groups have managed to seize 15400 square kilometers in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama governorates and have practically taken control of the city of Aleppo and the whole of Hama. Reaching this situation has a number of complex reasons that escape the logic of any half-baked person, so I will try to point out several conclusions I got from talking to several Syrians. Operation Deterrence of Aggression has been prepared by HTS for about two years. The beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 has brought about a number of changes in the foreign policies of Ukraine, which has carried out a number of anti-Russian operations in various sectors of Africa. Syria has been no exception. Drones have revolutionized the war scene in just a couple of years. We have already seen this prematurely in the Turkish operation against the SAA in March 2020 when the government advance on Idlib province was halted. After the freezing of the front the rebels have reorganized, especially HTS, who has managed to impose itself on rebel groups throughout the region, including the SNA itself after a series of operations in Afrin at the end of 2023. The transfer of drones from Turks and Ukrainian advisors has allowed the terrorist groups to have an air force for the military operations of these nine days where they have managed to inflict significant casualties on the SAA ranks. In contrast, the situation of the SAA has worsened considerably since 2020. The economic crisis due to economic sanctions and the impossibility of controlling the oil fields in the east have sank the resources available for the maintenance of an army like the one available before the freezing of the front. Soldiers’ salaries have worsened and with them their morale. In addition, the war in Ukraine has considerably reduced Russian aid to Syria, while Iran, busy with its internal and external problems in the region, has not given sufficient support to the Syrian army in the last two years. It is true that new weaponry arrived from Russia and Iran, the drones, in fact, were also successful in attacking terrorists trying to infiltrate government positions. However, the modernization was only applied in small brigades without a general impact. Hence, at the time of the rebel attack, the weakly equipped and demoralized troops barely put up any resistance, while the best troops remained miles away. Reinforcements did not arrive in time and Aleppo and Idlib were doomed. However, Hama has failed to stop the advance of HTS and allies. The rebel operational force is estimated at around 20,000 without counting the SNA. More than half of these numbers faced an inferior SAA in northern Hama. The local soldiers put up great resistance throughout The local soldiers put up great resistance along the defense line while awaiting the arrival of reinforcements. The problem was that the reinforcements hardly arrived there, but remained several kilometers south in Homs. Aviation and artillery were not enough to stop the terrorists whose drones continuously attacked the SAA positions and penetrated their defenses with enveloping movements. The Syrian army regained territory at dawn and lost it again throughout the day. The attacks were absorbed by the defense line, but little by little the fighting was approaching Hama. Yesterday, due to the impossibility of recovering the three lost supply lines to Hama, the SAA began to withdraw from the city. Today some units found out late about the withdrawal and were surrounded by the rebels who entered the city without resistance. The strangest thing is the large amount of weapons that the army has left behind in good condition. According to those I have been able to talk to, they blame the corruption of the army commanders, impregnated with political interests, who ordered the withdrawal from areas that a priori were easy to defend.”
“经过 9 天的行动，叛乱组织已成功占领伊德利卜省、阿勒颇省和哈马省的 15400 平方公里土地，并实际上控制了阿勒颇市和整个哈马。达到这种境地有许多复杂的原因，任何半生不熟的人都无法理解这些原因，因此我将尝试指出我从与几位叙利亚人的交谈中得出的几个结论。HTS 已经准备了大约两年的侵略威慑行动。2022 年俄乌战争的开始带来了乌克兰外交政策的一系列变化，乌克兰在非洲各个领域开展了多项反俄行动。叙利亚也不例外。无人机在短短几年内彻底改变了战争场景。我们已经在 2020 年 3 月土耳其对 SAA 的行动中过早地看到了这一点，当时政府停止了对伊德利卜省的推进。在前线冻结后，叛乱分子进行了重组，尤其是 HTS，它在 2023 年底在阿夫林开展了一系列行动后，成功地将自己强加于整个地区的叛乱组织，包括 SNA 本身。从土耳其和乌克兰顾问那里转移的无人机使恐怖组织能够拥有一支空军进行这九天的军事行动，在那里他们成功地对 SAA 部队造成了重大伤亡。相比之下，SAA 的情况自 2020 年以来已**恶化。经济制裁导致的经济危机和无法控制东部的油田，已经耗尽了可用于维持一支军队的资源，就像前线冻结之前那样。士兵的薪水恶化了，他们的士气也随之下降。 此外，乌克兰战争**减少了俄罗斯对叙利亚的援助，而伊朗忙于解决该地区的内忧外问题，在过去两年中没有给叙利亚军队足够的支持。的确，来自俄罗斯和伊朗的新武器，事实上，无人机也成功地袭击了试图渗透政府阵地的**。然而，现代化仅适用于小旅，没有普遍影响。因此，在叛军进攻时，装备薄弱、士气低落的部队几乎没有抵抗，而最优秀的部队则留在数英里之外。增援部队没有及时到达，阿勒颇和伊德利卜注定要失败。然而，哈马未能阻止 HTS 和盟友的前进。如果不算 SNA，叛军作战部队估计约为 20,000 人。这些数字中有一半以上在哈马北部面临劣质 SAA。当地士兵在整个过程中进行了顽强的抵抗当地士兵在等待援军到来的同时，沿着防线进行了顽强的抵抗。问题是增援部队几乎没有到达那里，而是留在霍姆斯以南几公里处。航空和大炮不足以阻止**，他们的无人机不断攻击 SAA 阵地并以包围运动穿透他们的防御。叙利亚军队在黎明时分收复了领土，并在一整天再次失去了领土。攻击被防线吸收，但战斗逐渐逼近哈马。昨天，由于无法恢复通往哈马的三条丢失的补给线，SAA 开始撤出该市。 今天，一些部队发现撤退的消息很晚，并被没有抵抗就进入城市的叛军包围。最奇怪的是，军队留下的大量武器完好无损。据我能够与之交谈的人说，他们指责军队指挥官的腐败，他们浸透了政治利益，他们下令从先验容易防守的地区撤退。”
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[–]ChesterfieldPotato 1 point 1 day ago
Seems like a thoughtful analysis. It is mostly the same points that others have suggested over the past few days. Show a lot of self-awareness, which means it can be fixed if SAA has the wherewithal to reform. A TL;DR of what happened, for those who don't want to read the whole thing:
似乎是一个深思熟虑的分析。这与其他人在过去几天里提出的观点基本相同。表现出很多自我意识，这意味着如果 SAA 有足够的资金进行改革，它是可以解决的。一个 TL;DR 发生了什么，对于那些不想阅读整件事的人：
HTS is organized and controls the rebels under a single command which is a change
HTS 组织有序，并在一个命令下控制叛军，这是一个变化
Turkey and Ukraine helped with drones. Drones have had a major impact.
土耳其和乌克兰提供了无人机援助。无人机产生了重大影响。
Syria is broke and morale among soldiers is bad as a result
叙利亚崩溃了，士兵们的士气也因此低落
Russia and Iran have their own problems and can't help
俄罗斯和伊朗都有自己的问题，无能为力
The SAA is slow to react and some troops aren't fighting hard because of poor morale.
SAA 反应迟钝，一些部队由于士气低落而没有努力战斗。
Rebels are fighting smart, using drones and cutting off supply.
叛军正在聪明地战斗，使用无人机并切断供应。
Corruption in the SAA is a still a problem.
SAA 的腐败仍然是一个问题。
Nothing earth shattering.
没有什么惊天动地的。
[–]tadcanEuropean Union 2 points 1 day ago
I would add that dictatorships need to control the army to avoid coups and stay in power, which is why they tend to be top heavy, without a NATO style NCO core trained to take the initiative, instead have a top down command structure, who can't do even basic things without an order, and plenty of generals to dilute power at the top. This is why they outsourced these to the IRGC, Hezbollah, and Russia, with only trusted people in charge of the Tiger forces able to have well armed and trained soldiers.
我想补充一点，独裁政权需要控制军队以避免政变并保持权力，这就是为什么他们往往头重脚轻，没有受过训练的北约式士官核心来主动出击，而是有一个自上而下的指挥结构，没有命令，他们甚至不能做基本的事情，还有大量的将军来稀释高层的权力。这就是为什么他们将这些外包给**革命卫队、真主党和俄罗斯，只有值得信赖的负责猛虎部队的人才能拥有装备精良、训练有素的士兵。
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[–]Day_of_Demeter 5 points 1 day ago
It's pretty simple. Here's what changed:
这很简单。以下是更改的内容：
The Assad regime relied on air support and weapons from Russia, and reinforcements and weapons from Hezbollah and Iranian and Iraqi Shia militias. Russia is busy with Ukraine now and Hezbollah got decimated by Israel recently.
阿萨德政权依靠俄罗斯的空中支援和武器，以及真主党、伊朗和伊拉克什叶派民兵的增援和武器。俄罗斯现在正忙于乌克兰，而真主党最近被以色列摧毁了。
HTS trained for years and built up an army while the SAA spent all that time sitting on their ass and selling captagon.
HTS 训练多年并建立了一支军队，而 SAA 则把所有时间都花在了坐以待毙和出售 captagon 上。
The rebels aren't infighting and splitting into a thousand splinter groups that go on to fight each other like they did a decade ago.
叛军并没有像十年前那样内讧和分裂成一千个分裂的团体，继续互相争斗。
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[–]RandomAndCasual 2 points 1 day ago
US occupied third of Syria and put sanctions on Syria to kill its economy.
美国占领了叙利亚三分之一的领土，并对叙利亚实施制裁以扼杀其经济。
It's hard to sustain military in this situation. Soldiers need to be paid and equipment is expensive.
在这种情况下，很难维持军队。士兵需要支付工资，而且设备很昂贵。
While at the same time Israel US UK France and others provided money, training and equipment for terrorists in Idlib.
与此同时，以色列、美国、英国、法国和其他国家为伊德利卜的**提供了资金、培训和设备。
Because they are fighting for their goals.
因为他们在为自己的目标而战。
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楼主: michaelakan
沪公网安备 31010702007642号 )
发表于 2024-12-7 16:32
虽然我这个想法很缺德，但想看吹“抵抗系”的那堆up现在怎么接着吹
，虽然能在压力面前坚守不退已经确实比亚努科维奇等一帮软骨头好很多，但是危机过去就只想着自家利益了。
好活当赏，建议开个播，只要梭中一条，保证有大冤种小海哥上舰，你就是下个千舰up主了。