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[海外] 日经突破4万日元,日本掀起全民炒股热

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发表于 2024-3-4 16:02 | 显示全部楼层
best32167 发表于 2024-3-4 12:51
不推荐,只是告诉下,唯一路径是各基金的日经225ETF  东证ETF等

印度ETF也nb,A股套利党几亿元都没把它 ...

印度ETF都停止申购了,怎么套利啊

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发表于 2024-3-4 16:04 | 显示全部楼层
grantdong 发表于 2024-3-4 13:55
有效市场理论,应该是这个名字,也有失效的时候,怎么判断还是信仰问题 ...

有效市场理论 约等于 真空中的球形鸡

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发表于 2024-3-5 15:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 TFSHZJV 于 2024-3-5 15:21 编辑

日经225 应该对标 沪深300

东证TOPIX 才应该对标 上证综指,东证TOPIX今天并没有突破1990年的历史最高点

日经225 现在2倍 PB,23倍PE
沪深300 现在 1.27倍PB, 11倍PE

谁要是说贵有贵的道理,那么按照相同逻辑,2021年初买2倍PB,18倍PE的沪深300一定也能发大财吧
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发表于 2024-3-5 15:33 | 显示全部楼层
巴菲特的BRK年报披露里五大商社的持股甚至还增持了,不知道大家在脑补啥,穿越到未来看到2024一季报了吗?

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2023ar/2023ar.pdf

Additionally, Berkshire continues to hold its passive and long-term interest in five very
large Japanese companies, each of which operates in a highly-diversified manner somewhat similar
to the way Berkshire itself is run. We increased our holdings in all five last year after Greg Abel
and I made a trip to Tokyo to talk with their managements.

Berkshire now owns about 9% of each of the five. (A minor point: Japanese companies
calculate outstanding shares in a manner different from the practice in the U.S.) Berkshire has also
pledged to each company that it will not purchase shares that will take our holdings beyond 9.9%.
Our cost for the five totals ¥1.6 trillion, and the yearend market value of the five was ¥2.9 trillion.
However, the yen has weakened in recent years and our yearend unrealized gain in dollars was
61% or $8 billion.

Neither Greg nor I believe we can forecast market prices of major currencies. We also don’t
believe we can hire anyone with this ability. Therefore, Berkshire has financed most of its Japanese
position with the proceeds from ¥1.3 trillion of bonds.
This debt has been very well-received in
Japan, and I believe Berkshire has more yen-denominated debt outstanding than any other
American company. The weakened yen has produced a yearend gain for Berkshire of $1.9 billion,
a sum that, pursuant to GAAP rules, has periodically been recognized in income over the
2020-23 period.
In certain important ways, all five companies – Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and
Sumitomo – follow shareholder-friendly policies that are much superior to those customarily
practiced in the U.S. Since we began our Japanese purchases, each of the five has reduced the
number of its outstanding shares at attractive prices.

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